Betting on Spencer Pratt
Public service is a public trust
“Having now finished the work assigned me, I retire from the great theatre of Action.”
— George Washington, resigning his commission, 1783
One of the more exciting bets that I’ve put on recently is for Spencer Pratt to win the LA Mayoral Election. I am not a political forecaster. Nor was I even aware of him running. What initially caught my attention were the fan made AI videos by Charlie Curran depicting Pratt as Batman and Luke Skywalker. The videos were entertaining and felt relevant as someone who has lived in LA. I laughed to myself at the absurdity of the videos and shared them with friends.
It wasn’t the videos though that got me to put money on Pratt winning the election. It was from a discussion with a friend. We were talking about how much more rizz Pratt has over Bass and Raman. Yet strangely the Polymarket odds weren’t reflecting that. Pratt at the time was at 15% despite all the attention, viral videos and conversation he was garnering. It felt like the kind of place for me to look into an asymmetric opportunity.
As they say,
“Invest, the investigate”.
Having put money on the line I watched the debate along with a number of videos & interviews by the three of them. It’s clear Pratt outshines the other two in rizz. In this day and age, having “rizz” matters. Traditional media does not have the power it once did. Those running to be elected must realize the real power lies in social media.
We’ve gone from a one-to-many traditional media model to a many-to-many decentralized model. It’s viral clips and soundbites that spread like wildfire. You must capture the public’s attention by entertaining them. Giving us lukewarm messaging through statistics and boring policy speak will no longer drive the needle.
Especially, when the trust in local governments are at an all time low. It’s clear public dissatisfaction with our institutions are increasing. We all feel they’ve failed us. Rents are skyrocketing. Yet quality of life feels diminishing.
Putting aside political ideologies I find that Mamdani and Pratt are the same in this regard. They have that rizz. They’re interesting, engaging and shareable.
What lies underneath that rizz is passion. And I feel it has been too long since we’ve felt passion about our local politics. It resonates not only with me but with many others when you see someone like Pratt who lost his home due to the mismanagement of the Palisade fires and then decided to do something about it. It put his skin in the game which I find admirable.
It’s incredible to see how much attention he has garnered. When you look at the trading volume of Pratt vs Bass and Raman on Polymarket it’s 10x! This growing fan base of his also compounds in the fact that fans now are making their own videos about his messages. So what started as one person spreads to many sharing the same frustrations.
Look at Charlie Curran. I’ve followed him for a while now due to his fun, unique and creative AI videos. One day I see his fan made videos on Pratt. Which get my attention, make me laugh and now I’m sharing that with other friends. This energy is compounding. The videos are relatable. It’s not just Pratt speaking. There’s a story being told. And it resonates with the residents of LA who are tired of the current status quo.
My edge exists in being an observer. While I may not be a political forecaster I can sense that a shift is happening in people. Suddenly, local politics are exciting. When was the last time the mayor elects of a city have been talked about so much? It’s clear this is only the start of a cultural change. The whole nation is watching and talking about the race for the mayor of LA. That’s a big deal.
My issue with polls and statistics is they lack context. Asking people what they think will never give you the result you hope for. Not everyone is forthright with their opinions. Especially on a polarizing figure. It’s impossible to know how people really FEEL. We are social creatures after all. And if our beliefs are counter to public consensus then we might keep quiet about our true feelings.
That’s what makes this trade so interesting. It’s almost impossible to price the probable outcome when you don’t know how the residents of LA actually feel. Pratt may not have the backing of the unions. The traditional media and giant complex of career politicians may be working against him. Yet at a fundamental level he is resonating with the everyday residents of LA. These are the people who feel the consequences of an inept local government.
He is touching on subjects that go beyond just the city of LA. This is a nationwide issue we all are dealing with. Why are the greatest cities in the United States facing such a crisis? How is it we are paying more and more in taxes and rent yet feel like we live in a third world country? Why is it FEEL like our quality of life is going down rather than up.
I love how Pratt mentioned in the debate it’s not about the statistics it’s about how people FEEL.
Even the AI videos have become polarizing. They are intertwined with the current anxieties of our society. What worked before is no longer working. We are hungry for change. And AI being involved with political campaigns is uncharted territory. Which of course captures my attention further. I look forward to seeing how it unfolds. And personally I hope Pratt wins, I want to see LA thrive again.
I am left to think of Cincinnatus. A farmer who was given absolute power to save Rome from an invasion, did his duty, and immediately gave up power to go back to his plow.
Government should never be a career.
The following is my personal commentary for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and I am not a licensed investment adviser. Investors should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.